Blog: Science in the Talmud

אַחֵינוּ כָּל בֵּית יִשְׂרָאֵל

הַנְּתוּנִים בַּצָּרָה וּבַשִּׁבְיָה

הָעוֹמְדִים בֵּין בַּיָּם וּבֵין בַּיַּבָּשָׁה

הַמָּקוֹם יְרַחֵם עֲלֵיהֶם

וְיוֹצִיאֵם מִצָּרָה לִרְוָחָה

וּמֵאֲפֵלָה לְאוֹרָה

וּמִשִּׁעְבּוּד לִגְאֻלָּה

הָשָׁתָא בַּעֲגָלָא וּבִזְמַן קָרִיב

Niddah 20a ~ Rabbis, Pheromones and the Scientific Method

Today the Talmud tells two stories of rabbis, Rav Elazar and Rava who each used their keen sense of smell to identify the origins of uterine blood.

נדה כ,ב

ואמאי קרו ליה מרא דארעא דישראל דההיא אתתא דאייתא דמא לקמיה דרבי אלעזר הוה יתיב רבי אמי קמיה ארחיה אמר לה האי דם חימוד הוא בתר דנפקה אטפל לה רבי אמי אמרה ליה בעלי היה בדרך וחמדתיו קרי עליה (תהלים כה, יד) סוד ה' ליראיו

There was an incident involving a certain woman who brought blood before Rabbi Elazar for examination, and Rabbi Ami was sitting before him.Rabbi Ami observed that Rabbi Elazar smelled the blood and said to the woman: This is blood of desire, i.e., your desire for your husband caused you to emit this blood, and it is not the blood of menstruation. After the woman left Rabbi Elazar’s presence, Rabbi Ami caught up with her and inquired into the circumstances of her case. She said to him: My husband was absent on a journey, and I desired him. Rabbi Ami read the following verse about Rabbi Elazar: “The counsel of the Lord is with those who fear Him; and His covenant, to make them know it” (Psalms 25:14), i.e., God reveals secret matters to those who fear Him. 

אפרא הורמיז אמיה דשבור מלכא שדרה דמא לקמיה דרבא הוה יתיב רב עובדיה קמיה ארחיה אמר לה האי דם חימוד הוא אמרה ליה לבריה תא חזי כמה חכימי יהודאי א"ל דלמא כסומא בארובה

The Gemara further relates that Ifera Hurmiz, the mother of King Shapur, sent blood before Rava for examination, [as she sought to convert and was practicing the halakhot of menstruation]. At that time Rav Ovadya was sitting before Rava. Rav Ovadya observed that Rava smelled the blood and later said to the woman: This is blood of desire. She said to her son: Come and see how wise the Jews are, as Rava is correct. Her son said to her: Perhaps Rava was like a blind man who escapes from a chimney, [i.e., it was a lucky guess…]

Available on Amazon. Results definitely not guaranteed.

Available on Amazon. Results definitely not guaranteed.

Each rabbi had inhaled the odor of the sample of blood and and concluded that it was “the blood of desire.” Rashi explains that the women from whom the sample came had sexually desired her husband to the degree that it had prompted a uterine bleed (שנתאוית לבעלה וראתה הדם מחמת תאוה). Leaving aside the question of whether menstrual bleeding and sexual desire are somehow related, the question we will focus on is this: could these blood samples really have smelled different? And that brings us to the topic of the day: pheromones.

Pheremones and Menstrual synchrony

“Pheremones are chemical signals that have evolved for communication with other members of the same species.” That is how the Oxford University zoologist Tristram Wyatt, defines them, though he is an admitted sceptic when it comes to their existence in us. The earliest claim that they might exist in humans was made back in the 1970s in those famous studies of synchronized menstruation in women who lived together in the same college dormitory.

The landmark study was published by in 1971 the American physiologist Martha McClintock, who studied the menstrual cycles of young women living on the leafy campus of Wellesley College in Massachusetts. McClintock analyzed their mensrtual diaries, and noted “a significant increase in synchronization among roommates and among close friends.” She was quick to note that although this was a preliminary study, “the evidence for synchrony and suppression of the menstrual cycle is quite strong, indicating that in humans there is some interpersonal physiological process which effects the menstrual cycle.” Just as Rava and Rav Elazar had claimed.

Lots of hypotheses were proposed to account for this menstrual synchrony. Perhaps the young women were eating similar foods, or were influenced by the same weather, or were subject to the same daily stresses of exams. Perhaps the phases of the moon were responsible? Or perhaps they were influenced by the presence of men near the campus? There was another possibility too. Perhaps there was a pheromonal signal between the menstruating women. That might be the cause. Maybe a chemical signal between the women caused the synchrony, rather than it occurring as the result of an alignment of each woman’s cycle to some external environmental signal.

Only there was a big problem. Over the decades scientists tried to replicate McClintock’s findings, but they couldn’t. Twenty years passed and four studies couldn’t replicate the findings. Thirty years passed and new experiments failed to find evidence of menstrual synchrony. And now, almost fifty years since the original study the scientific consensus is that at best there is no evidence for it; at worst, it has been thoroughly discredited. Here is how a 2014 review in the Journal of Sex Research summarised the field:

An appreciation of the likely patterns of ovarian cycling throughout much of human evolutionary history (until the 20th century) coupled with data on the extraordinary variation within and among contemporary women in cycle length quickly leads to a nagging doubt regarding the likelihood of MS sensu stricto. Add a good dose of probability theory and the fact that reasonably well designed studies have failed to support the MSH, and one is left wondering why so much attention has been given to searching for elusive mechanisms and constructing convoluted evolutionary scenarios…

So much for menstrual synchrony. But now let’s get back to the question of pheremones. Since a pheromonal mechanism of synchronization is the only plausible mechanism to account for synchrony, and since synchrony doesn’t occur, then maybe it follows that there are no pheromones that modulate the length of the human menstrual cycle. To test this, Jeffrey Schank, a psychologist from the University of California at Davis painstakingly reviewed “all the studies directly or indirectly related to pheromone modulation of the menstrual cycle,”though he noted that “this is a very small literature of eight studies spanning 25 years.” All eight studies had serious methodological flaws that you can read about here, and Schanks concluded that when taken together, “these results cast doubt on the existence of pheromones that modulate the length of menstrual cycles.”

For example, consider a study by Kathleen Stern and (you guessed it…) Martha McClintock, published in the very prestigious journal Nature in 1998. They claimed that that odourless compounds “collected from the armpits of women in the late follicular phase of their menstrual cycles accelerated the preovulatory surge of luteinizing hormone of recipient women and shortened their menstrual cycles. Axillary (underarm) compounds from the same donors which were collected later in the menstrual cycle (at ovulation) had the opposite effect: they delayed the luteinizing-hormone surge of the recipients and lengthened their menstrual cycles.” Wouldn’t that support the suggestion that humans produce compounds that regulate a specific neuroendocrine mechanism in other people without being consciously detected as odours? That is, after all, the classic definition of a pheromone.

Well no. In the first place the study results were a trend but were not statistically significant. But more importantly, Schanks noted that it was was confounded by using the third cycle, which was a treatment cycle, as a baseline cycle for determining the change in cycle length resulting from ovarian cycle secretions. It was as flawed as the other seven studies.

The search continues

We have no evidence that human pheromones exist. But that is not the same as having evidence that they do not. The search continues, and some are hopeful that by returning to good scientific principles and by using more rigorous techniques we can avoid some of the mistakes of the past.

And what are we to make of the claim that Rava and Rav Elazar could detect pheromones? Well, we should make of it exactly what the Talmud itself makes of it. Either their conclusions were the result of God’s direct revelation to “those who fear Him” (סוד ה' ליראיו), or, and this is equally possible, they were just a lucky guess. Take your pick.

Science is not subject to statutes of limitation or prohibitions against double jeopardy. Theories, methods, and data are forever open to critical review. Science only progresses when hypotheses and theories are given the most severe tests possible. Indeed, even when a theory passes a severe test, errors may be subsequently found in data and methods supporting that theory. This implies that neither theories, data, nor methods can be accepted with absolute certainty. Scientists are fallible, and even the peer review process is no guarantee against error. The fact that errors may occur at all levels of scientific inquiry appears to lead to the skeptical view that all of science is on an equally uncertain footing. However, by repeatedly scrutinizing theories, data, and methods to weed out errors, we can have growing confidence in those that survive. This is a never ending process, but the more we critically scrutinize previous results, the more confident we can be in those theories, data, and methods in which we fail to find errors. Perhaps future studies will find indisputable evidence of pheromones that modulate menstrual cycles, but the studies to date have not.
— Schank, J. Do Human Pheremones Exist? Human Nature 2006: 17 (4). 448-470.
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Niddah 19a ~ The Many Colors and Properties of Blood

It is an inherently human characteristic to assign meaning to blood.
— Melissa Meyer. Thicker Than Water: The origins of blood as symbol and ritual. New York. Routledge 2005. p16

נדה יט, א

תניא נמי הכי שחור כחרת עמוק מכן טמא דיהה אפי' ככחול טהור ושחור זה לא מתחלתו הוא משחיר אלא כשנעקר הוא משחיר משל לדם מכה לכשנעקר הוא משחיר 

It was taught in a baraita: The black color of blood that is impure is blood as black as cheret. If the black is deeper than that, the blood is ritually impure; if the black is lighter than that, even if it is still as dark as blue, the blood is ritually pure. And this black blood does not blacken from its outset, when it is inside the body; rather, it blackens only when it is removed from the body. This is comparable to the blood of a wound, which is initially red, but when it is removed from the body it blackens.

In the discussion over the various kinds of uterine bleeding that render a woman ritually impure, the Talmud pauses to consider the color of the blood itself. Perhaps blood is only considered to be, well, blood, when it is red. Rabbi Abahu thought so, and brought a proof from the Second Book of Kings (3:22):

אמר רבי אבהו דאמר קרא (מלכים ב ג:כב) "ויראו מואב את המים אדומים כדם" למימרא דדם אדום הוא אימא אדום ותו לא

Rabbi Abbahu said that the verse states: “And the sun shone upon the water, and the Moabites saw the water some way off as red as blood” [which indicates that blood is red. The Talmud asks:] Is this to say that blood is red? If so, one can say that only blood that is red like the blood of a wound [is ritually impure], and no more colors of blood are impure.

On the left, bright red oxygenated (arterial) blood. On the right, darker deoxygenated (venomous) blood.

On the left, bright red oxygenated (arterial) blood. On the right, darker deoxygenated (venomous) blood.

the many colors of blood

This is not the first time we have encountered talmudic hematology and a discussion of the color of blood. When we studied Chullin (87b) we read the following

חולין פז, ב
אמר רב יהודה אמר שמואל כל מראה אדמומית מכפרין ומכשירין וחייבין בכסוי… ר' אסי מנהרביל אומר בצללתא דדמאי

Rav Yehuda says in the name of Shmuel: All mixtures of blood and water that maintain a reddish and render food susceptible to contracting ritual impurity, and are included in the obligation of covering the bloodhue are considered blood and effect atonement by being presented on the altar…Rabbi Asi of Neharbil says: The statement of Rav Yehuda is referring to the clear part of the blood [ i.e., plasma. If the plasma has a reddish hue due to the blood, it has the status of blood and can render food susceptible to contracting ritual impurity].

That is one of the earliest references to a component of the blood known today as plasma. Here is how Rashi explains what Rav Yehuda was describing:

בצללתא דדמא - באותן מים שהם מן הדם עצמן כשהוא נקרש יש סביבותיו צלול כמים ואם יש

The clear part of the blood: The liquid that is part of the blood itself. When blood clots, it is surrounded by a clear liquid…

Left: Clotted blood separated into three layers. Right: unclotted blood.

Left: Clotted blood separated into three layers. Right: unclotted blood.

It took another couple of thousand years for us to understand the nature of this “clear part of the blood.” Sure, blood looks uniformly red, but if you let it stand (and not clot) or better yet spin a sample in a centrifuge you will notice that to the naked eye it is made up of several components. At the bottom is a layer of dark red stuff, made up of red blood cells - you know, the ones that carry oxygen from the lungs around the body. On top of that is a thinner, lighter layer, made up of white blood cells that fight infection and platelets that are vital in forming blood clots. This layer is known as the buffy coat, from the word buff meaning yellowish (sort of like a manilla envelope). At the very top is a third layer with a yellowish tinge. We call that plasma, and it is what Rav Yehuda called “the clear part of the blood” - צללתא דדמא. So that is the plasma.

Today’s page of Talmud does not address the separate color of the plasma, but the combined color of blood that has been left to clot outside of the body.

THE COMPONENTS OF BLOOD

Absorption spectra for fully oxygenated and fully deoxygenated human hemoglobin. From here.

Absorption spectra for fully oxygenated and fully deoxygenated human hemoglobin. From here.

As anyone who has cut their knee will know, the blood that first oozes out is not bright red but a darker hew. This is blood from the venous side of the circulation; there is little oxygen in this blood since it has all been extracted by the muscles and organs that need it. The hemoglobin molecules in the red blood cells shine a different, darker color when they are not carrying a molecule of oxygen. Hence the darker blood.

Hopefully you’ve never done this, but cutting an artery is a whole different story. The blood does not trickle out. It gushes out like a little fountain. And it is bright, bright red. It comes out under force because the arteries are connected directly to the heart and carry the blood under pressure. It is bright red because the hemoglobin has just taken a trip through the lungs where they have happily bound to a molecule of oxygen. And oxyhemoglobin is bright red.

As the Talmud notes, once blood leaves the body it darkens (as oxyhemoglobin and other proteins break down) and turns black. The rabbis ruled that this denatured black blood is as ritually impure as its brighter red former self.

the Sacred as Red

Red menstrual symbolism carried over into folk speech. Early modern Europeans frequently referred to menstruation as “monthly red flowers:’ “The blood-red soils of the Rouergue district” led the southwest French to say that a woman did not” ‘have her monthlies: she ‘went to Rodez,’” ...
— Melissa Meyer. Thicker Than Water: The origins of blood as symbol and ritual. New York. Routledge 2005. p9

“Red has always connoted blood in all its ambiguous, multivocal meanings “ wrote Melissa Meyer in her 2005 book Thicker Than Water: The origins of blood as symbol and ritual. There are so many examples of this in the rich tradition of Judaism. At a brit, the Jewish circumcision ceremony, the community responds in unison and chants a verse from Ezekiel (16, 6):

“וָאֶעֱבֹר עָלַיִךְ וָאֶרְאֵךְ מִתְבּוֹסֶסֶת בְּדָמָיִךְ וָאֹמַר לָךְ בְּדָמַיִךְ חֲיִי וָאֹמַר לָךְ בְּדָמַיִךְ חֲיִי

And when I passed by you, and you were weltering in your blood, and I said to you – In your blood you shall live, and I said to you – In your blood you shall live.” At the brit, blood is life affirming. But when expelled from the uterus, blood symbolizes the missed opportunity for life and transmits ritual impurity. As if to emphasise the multivocal meanings of the color, the most important ritual of purification described in the Torah (Numbers 19) required the ashes of a heifer. And not just any heifer. A red one, known as para adumma (פָרָה אֲדֻמָּה) the red cow.

זֹאת חֻקַּת הַתּוֹרָה אֲשֶׁר־צִוָּה יְה’ לֵאמֹר דַּבֵּר אֶל־בְּנֵי יִשְׂרָאֵל וְיִקְחוּ אֵלֶיךָ פָרָה אֲדֻמָּה תְּמִימָה אֲשֶׁר אֵין־בָּהּ מוּם אֲשֶׁר לֹא־עָלָה עָלֶיהָ עֹל׃ וּנְתַתֶּם אֹתָהּ אֶל־אֶלְעָזָר הַכֹּהֵן וְהוֹצִיא אֹתָהּ אֶל־מִחוּץ לַמַּחֲנֶה וְשָׁחַט אֹתָהּ לְפָנָיו׃ וְלָקַח אֶלְעָזָר הַכֹּהֵן מִדָּמָהּ בְּאֶצְבָּעוֹ וְהִזָּה אֶל־נֹכַח פְּנֵי אֹהֶל־מוֹעֵד מִדָּמָהּ שֶׁבַע פְּעָמִים׃

This is the ritual law that the LORD has commanded: Instruct the Israelite people to bring you a red cow without blemish, in which there is no defect and on which no yoke has been laid. You shall give it to Eleazar the priest. It shall be taken outside the camp and slaughtered in his presence. Eleazar the priest shall take some of its blood with his finger and sprinkle it seven times toward the front of the Tent of Meeting.

In many other cultures, both sacred and taboo objects are colored red. Here is Meyer (p9):

Indians bloodied or reddened sacred statuettes and stones. Sacred trees in Madagascar and Estonia were painted with blood. Greeks tinged Dionysian statues red. Romans touched up Jupiter's face with red colorants prior to festivals. In the Congo and West Africa, some native groups marked the new moon by applying fresh red pigment to sacred statues. The Chukchi daubed sacred tent poles and charms with blood.

Nothing evinced women's fertility more than the color red. Across cultures, many believed that menstrual blood retained in the womb formed a fetus. This most powerful substance was of particular concern when it had obviously not gone to create a child. The Zaramo of Tanzania extensively ritualized mkole tree sap, which turned from white to red, powerfully symbolizing female fertility cues. Fathers gave Nepalese girls red clothing at menarche. Unmarried girls wore red beaded necklaces. Pubescent Navajo girls wore red sashes during their puberty ritual, the kinaalda. Menstruating women often protected their communities by marking themselves red. Women of the Brazilian Tapuya, African Gold Coast, and Kaffir painted their bodies red. Among Victoria tribes, menstruating women were painted red from the waist up. Menstruating Australian Dieri women wore red pigment around their mouths. In India, menstruating women wore blood-stained scarves around their necks."

THe blood of the young and the Failed start-up AMbrosia

The Mishnah on today’s page identified the color of blood as "that which flows from a wound” (איזהו אדום? כדם המכה). On page 19b the Talmud returns to the color of blood:

אמי ורדינאה א"ר אבהו כדם אצבע קטנה של יד שנגפה וחייתה וחזרה ונגפה ולא של כל אדם אלא של בחור שלא נשא אשה ועד כמה עד בן עשרים

The Sage Ami of Vardina says that Rabbi Abbahu says: It is red as the blood that flows from the smallest finger of the hand, which was wounded and later healed and was subsequently wounded again. And this is not referring to the finger of any person, but specifically to the finger of a young man who has not yet married a woman. And furthermore, this does not mean any young man; rather, until what age must he be? Until twenty years old.

Rabbi Abahu who lived in Israel in the third century, declared that there was something special about the blood of a young person - or rather, that of a young unmarried man. It looked different. There is no truth to that declaration: the blood of the young and the blood of the old are identical in color. Even the blood of a person with obstructive pulmonary disease (and hence a slightly lower oxygen content) appears identical to that of a perfectly healthy person; only a machine might tell them apart. Rabbi Abahu wasn’t the only one who believed that certain sources of human blood had special properties. The Roman naturalist and author Pliney the Elder (23-79 CE) lived some two-hundred years before Rav Abahu. He thought it hard to find anything more marvellous than menstrual blood:

 On the approach of a woman in this state, must will become sour, seeds which are touched by her become sterile, grafts wither away, garden plants are parched up, and the fruit will fall from the tree beneath which she sits. Her very look, even, will dim the brightness of mirrors, blunt the edge of steel, and take away the polish from ivory. A swarm of bees, if looked upon by her, will die immediately;

For Pliney, menstrual blood could do all manner of things: It kills, animates, and blunts knives all at once. Today you can also find claims that a young person’s blood will heal you (though not that it blunts knives).

In 2016 a startup called Ambrosia offered to sell you a therapeutic blood transfusion from “donors age 16-25.” And the cost of a dose of this young person’s plasma? A mere $8,000. The company’s chief executive is Jesse Karmazin, who graduated medical school but never completed any other medical training. Ambrosia claimed it was running a clinical trial, though it was doing nothing of the sort, and by mid -2017 some 600 people had been gullible enough to part with their $8,000. All of this was a bit much, even for the fairly patient U.S. Food and Drug Administration. In February of this year the FDA issued a statement that shut down the company:

Simply put, we’re concerned that some patients are being preyed upon by unscrupulous actors touting treatments of plasma from young donors as cures and remedies. Such treatments have no proven clinical benefits for the uses for which these clinics are advertising them and are potentially harmful. There are reports of bad actors charging thousands of dollars for infusions that are unproven and not guided by evidence from adequate and well-controlled trials. The promotion of plasma for these unproven purposes could also discourage patients suffering from serious or intractable illnesses from receiving safe and effective treatments that may be available to them. We strongly urge individuals to consult their treating physicians prior to considering the use of such products for aging indications or for the treatment of conditions such as dementia, Parkinson’s disease, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer’s disease, heart disease or post-traumatic stress disorder given the known and unknown risks associated with their use

(By the way, in 2016 Karmazin and the Massachusetts Board of Registration in Medicine had reached an agreement: Karmazin voluntarily agreed to cease practicing medicine in the state, and left, apparently for Florida. As others have noted, this tactic is typically used by doctors who are threatened with the loss of their medical license.)

It would of course be a wonderful thing if indeed a young person’s blood could transmit new life and vigor into the old. It does just that, when we transfuse it into those who have anemia, hemophilia or life-threatening blood loss from trauma. It doesn’t kill bees or reverse aging but its life sustaining properties are plentiful. Now go donate some.

[Partial repost from here.]




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Niddah 18a ~ Talmudic Probability Theory

נדה יח, א 

  א"ר זירא: כל קבוע כמחצה על מחצה דמי ..מנא ליה לר' זירא הא? ...מתשע חנויות, כולן מוכרות בשר שחוטה ואחת בשר נבלה, ולקח מאחת מהן ואינו יודע מאיזה מהן לקח - ספיקו אסור, ובנמצא - הלך אחר הרוב, 

dice.jpg

R. Zera said: Any doubt about something that is fixed in its place is considered be a fify-fifty chance... Where does he learn this from ? [From a Baraisa which teaches the following. Consider a town in which] there are nine shops, all of which sell kosher meat, and one store that sells sells meat that is not kosher. If a person bought meat from one of these [ten] stores but he cannot recall from which, his doubt means that the meat is forbidden. But if he found a piece of meat [in the street and he cannot tell from which store it came] he may follow the majority [and assume the meat is kosher]...

As Dov Gabbay and Moshe Koppel noted in their 2011 paper, there is something odd about talmudic probability. If we find some meat in an area where there are p kosher stores and q non-kosher stores, then all other things being equal, the meat is kosher if and only if p > q.This is clear from the parallel text in Hullin (11a) where the underlying principal is described as זיל בתר רובא – follow the majority. Or as Gabbay and Koppel explain it:

Given a set of objects the majority of which have the property P and the rest of which have the property not-P, we may, under certain circumstances, regard the set itself and/or any object in the set as having property P.
— Gabbay and Koppel 2010

In other words, what happens is that if there are more kosher stores than there are trief, the meat is considered to have become kosher. It's not that the meat is most likely to be kosher and may therefore be eaten.  Rather it takes on the property of being kosher

We encountered another example of talmudic probability theory way back in February 2015 on page 9a of Ketuvot. There, a newly-wed husband claims that his wife was not a virgin on her wedding night. The Talmud argues that his claim needs to be set into a context of probabilities:

  1. She was raped before her betrothal.

  2. She was raped after her betrothal.

  3. She had intercourse of her own free will before her betrothal.

  4. She had intercourse of her own free will after her betrothal.

Since it is only the last of these that renders her forbidden to her husband (stay focussed and don't raise the question of a husband who is a Cohen), the husband's claim is not supported, based on the probabilities. Here is how Gubbay and Koppel explain the case - using formal logic:

 
Detail from Gabbay paper.jpg
 

Oh, and the reference to Bertrand's paradox? That is the paradox in which some questions about probability - even ones that seem to be entirely mathematical, have more than one correct solution; it all depends on how you think about the answer. One if its formulations goes like this: Given a circle, find the probability that a chord chosen at random will be longer than the side of an inscribed equilateral triangle. Turns out there are three correct solutions. Gubbay and Koppel claim that just like that paradox, the solution to many talmudic questions of probability will have more than one correct answer, depending on how you think about that answer.

Rabbi Nahum Eliezer Rabinovitch (b.1928) is the Rosh Yeshiva of the hesder Yeshivah Birkat Moshe in Ma'ale Adumim.  (He also has a PhD. in the Philosophy of Science from the University of Toronto, published in 1973 as Probability and Statistical Inference in Ancient and Medieval Jewish Literature.)  Rabbi Rabinovitch seems to have been the first to point out the relationship between Bertrand's paradox and talmudic probability theory in his 1970 Biometrika paper Combinations and Probability in Rabbinic Literature. There, the Rosh Yeshiva wrote that "the rabbis had some awareness of the different conceptions of probability as a measure of relative frequencies or a state of general ignorance."

James Franklin, in his book on the history of probability theory, notes that codes like the Talmud (and the Roman Digest that was developed under Justine c.533) "provide examples of how to evaluate evidence in cases of doubt and conflict.  By and large, they do so reasonably. But they are almost entirely devoid of discussion on the principles on which they are operating." But it is unfair to expect the Talmud to have developed a notion of probability theory as we have it today. That wasn't its interest or focus. Others have picked up this task, and have explained the statistics that is the foundation of  talmudic probability. For this, we have many to thank, including the Rosh Yeshiva, Rabbi Rabinovitch שליט׳א.

(The [Roman] Digest and) the Talmud are huge storehouses of concepts, and to be required to have an even sketchy idea of them is a powerful stimulus to learning abstractions.
— James Franklin. The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal, 349.

[Repost from here.]

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Niddah 17a ~ Overnight Eggs and the Danger of Breast Cancer

THIS IS THE SECOND OF TWO POSTS FOR NIDDAH 17,

WHICH WILL STUDIED TOMORROW, SHABBAT.

*****

For a longer analysis of the evolution of the stringency of overnight eggs, see the essay published today on The Lehrhaus here.

Notice the OU kosher approval on the lower right.

Notice the OU kosher approval on the lower right.

In today’s page of Talmud we read a list of actions that according to the great second century sage Rabbi Shimon bar Yochai are liable to kill you. Here they are:

נדה יז, א

אמר ר"ש בן יוחי ה' דברים הן שהעושה אותן מתחייב בנפשו ודמו בראשו האוכל שום קלוף ובצל קלוף וביצה קלופה והשותה משקין מזוגין שעבר עליהן הלילה והלן בבית הקברות והנוטל צפרניו וזורקן לרה"ר והמקיז דם ומשמש מטתו

Rabbi Shimon ben Yoḥai further says: There are five actions with regard to which one who performs them is held liable for his own life, and his blood is upon his own head, i.e., he bears responsibility for his own demise. They are as follows: One who eats peeled garlic or a peeled onion or a peeled egg, and one who drinks diluted drinks; all these are referring to items only when they were left overnight. And one who sleeps at night in a cemetery, and one who removes his nails and throws them into a public area, and one who lets blood and immediately afterward engages in intercourse.

It is the first on the list, the eating of eggs or garlic that has been left peeled overnight, on which we will focus. At first blush you might think that this concern need not be taken seriously today. Imagine my surprise then, when I found it on the kashrut certification while flying from Israel.

From my airline meal insert….

From my airline meal insert….

“The eggs are not “beitsim shelau” - no “overnight” eggs.” This caused a wave of relief as a realized I had one less safety issue to worry about on the flight, but raised a series of other questions, not the least of which was what on earth were “overnight eggs” and why was I not familiar with this requirement? Well, mostly because it was not a kashrut requirement, until recently.

Overnight Eggs and the Jewish codes of Law

Although Rabbi Shimon bar Yochai considered the eating of overnight eggs to be life-threatening, his concern was a unique opinion in the Talmud. It was not codified as law by either Maimonides in his twelfth-century Mishneh Torah, nor the sixteenth century authoritative Shulchan Aruch, the Code of Jewish Law. It was mentioned here and there in a few rabbinic responsa, but they essentially ruled there was no need for concern. In fact it was all but ignored until it appeared in a work called Shulchan Aruch Harav that was first published in 1816. It was written by the first hasidic leader of the Chabad-Lubavitch dynasty, R. Shneur Zalman of Liadi (1745-1812) who is also known as the Ba’al ha-Tanya or the Alter Rebbe. “A person should not put cooked or other food or drinks under the bed because an evil spirit rests on them,” he wrote. “This applies even if they are placed in a metal container. Nor should he eat peeled garlic nor peeled onions nor peeled eggs that have been left overnight, because an evil spirit rests on them – even if they are kept in a sealed cloth. But if he left some of the root… or some of the shell they are permitted.”

The Shulchan Aruch Harav is of course of great importance to Lubavitch hasidim, but is perhaps less so to those outside of this community. The next step in the emergence of overnight eggs as a contemporary kashrut concern was a responsa by R. Yekutiel Halberstam (1905-1994). R Halberstam lost his family in the Holocaust, and rebuilt a new life in Natanya in northern Israel, where he led the Klausenberg hasidim (and built Laniado Hospital). In 1975 he wrote a long responsa (later published in his work Divrei Yatziv,) in which he could not be clearer:

The practice of being punctilious about not eating peeled eggs left overnight was widespread among our fathers and mothers. And when I set my heart to explain the issue, I noted that there are those among the later rabbis who issued a number of lenient rulings on the matter. But I will stand to defend the practice and to strengthen the customs of our ancestors, who were not lenient in any way about this.

The details are of course important, and R. Halberstam cites many works. If you take the time to read them, most actually demonstrate the very opposite of his conclusion. But what is of interest today is not the history of this belief. It is the claim made by R. Halberstam that eating overnight eggs causes cancer. Let me say that again. R. Halberstam claimed that there is a direct link between eating these dangerous products and cancer (specifically breast cancer, which is of course very prevalent in among Ashkenazi Jews, in large part due to the high prevalence of three breast cancer genetic mutations). Here is the editor’s note to Rabbi Halberstam’s responsa. The original Hebrew text is also shown below, for those who don’t believe me…

Overnight eggs cause cancer. From Divrei Yatziv, Yoreh Deah 1:31.

Overnight eggs cause cancer. From Divrei Yatziv, Yoreh Deah 1:31.

It is right to reproduce here what our teacher and author amplified in his holy talk given at a festive meal on Lag Ba’Omer 5736 [1976]:

I have sat and considered the cause of a number of terrible cases, which we learn about to our sadness, in which people fall ill to the well-known disease [i.e. cancer] God forbid, for which there is no cure… And after pondering the matter I have reached a conclusion, which my heart tells me is as clear as the day. It is because people are no longer cautious about not eating peeled eggs that have been left overnight in the way that they once wereIt is known that the nature of this disease [cancer] is because of growths within that spread and undermine the basis of human life and its continuation. And the rule of causation [that like causes like] explains the spread of this disease: since they are lax about this prohibition for various reasons. Similarly, other incurable malignant diseases are due to the evil spirit in these things. Perhaps this is what is hinted at in the Talmud when it uses the language “the fault is his...” [lit. “his blood is upon his own head.”] Immediately after eating [these eggs] it is already a certainty, and he is like a condemned man, God forbid. After eating they immediately cause damage to his organs. They may lay dormant for weeks or years, but they will ultimately strike him. Hence, from the first time he ingests them “the fault is his” It matters not whether they are eaten accidentally or deliberately, for in this respect they are like one who consumes a poison. It is therefore incumbent on everyone to be especially careful about this matter.

OVERNIGHT EGGS AND CONTEMPORARY US KASHRUT

Overnight eggs are addressed by both the Orthodox Union (OU) and the Kof-K, which provide kosher supervision for thousands of products in the US. Their conclusions are at best confusing. For example, the OU notes a permissive ruling from R. Moshe Feinstein, the author of Igrot Moshe. “This would provide a basis for certification of all commercial egg, garlic and onion products but would not permit a caterer to crack eggs for the next day’s breakfast or to cut onions and garlic for the next day’s salad. Others do not accept this approach.” The OU doesn’t explicitly declare its position, but it sort of does. You can buy overnight eggs that are OU certified (and parve). I did. They were delicious.

Kof K-1.png
Kof K-2.png

the Two magesteria of Science and Religion

In his Rocks of Ages: Science and Religion in the Fullness of Life, the late paleontologist Stephen J. Gould wrote of two magesteria or domains where one form of teaching holds the appropriate tools for meaningful discourse and resolution.

In the magisterium of science is "the empirical realm: what the Universe is made of (fact) and why does it work in this way (theory). The magisterium of religion extends over questions of ultimate meaning and moral value.These two magisteria do not overlap, nor do they encompass all inquiry…

We should ask scientific questions to the scientist, and meaning or moral questions to religious thinkers. That’s a pretty good way to stay out of trouble, and in fact is fully recognized in the Talmud itself. In a few days we will read the following:

נדה כ, ב

?אמר רבי זירא … דאמינא בטבעא לא ידענא, בדמא ידענא

Rabbi Zeira said … If I am not acquainted with the science of things, how can I possibly know about examining blood?

In other words, for Rabbi Zeira to opine about the religious status of a physiological process, he knew that he must fully understand it from a scientific perspective.

Here is another example of the same idea.In an unrelated incident later in the Talmud (Niddah 22b) there is a question about the origin of a uterine discharge. Notice the order in which things were asked:

ובאה ושאלה את אבא ואבא שאל לחכמים וחכמים לרופאים

- she came and asked my father whether she was impure. And my father asked the other Sages, and the Sages asked the doctors, and the doctors said to them.”

In fact this stepwise progression is mentioned twice -with the ultimate medical authority resting not with the rabbis, but with the doctors of the day.

Everything gives you cancer

In 2013 Jonathan Schoenfeld and John Ioannidis published one of my all-time favorite scientific papers: “Is everything we eat associated with cancer? A systematic cookbook review.” They noted the that dozens of foods or nutrients are associated with an increased risk of cancers. Did any of these published associations make any scientific sense? How solid were the conclusions, statistical significance and reproducibility of the literature that made these claims?

We selected ingredients from random recipes included in The Boston Cooking-School Cook Book...PubMed queries identified recent studies that evaluated the relation of each ingredient to cancer risk...

Associations with cancer risk or benefits have been claimed for most food ingredients. Many single studies highlight implausibly large effects, even though evidence is weak...
— Schoenfeld J and Ioannidis J. Is everything we eat associated with cancer? A systematic cookbook review. Am J Clin Nutr 2013;97:127–34.

In the chart below each dot represents a research paper that examined a food and its association with cancer. If the dot is to the left of the vertical line it reduces the risk of cancer. If it is to the right it increases it. Just look at wine on the first line as an example of the problem. There were nine studies; six suggested it decreased the risk of cancer (though they disagreed on the amount of that risk reduction) and three suggested it increased the risk. Coffee is even more muddling; the studies were evenly split, other than the one that found no relationship at all. It’s an embarrassing mess.

Effect estimates reported in the literature by ingredients. Only ingredients with >10 studies are shown. From Schoenfeld J and Ioannidis J. Is everything we eat associated with cancer? A systematic cookbook review. Am J Clin Nutr 2013;97:127–34.

Effect estimates reported in the literature by ingredients. Only ingredients with >10 studies are shown. From Schoenfeld J and Ioannidis J. Is everything we eat associated with cancer? A systematic cookbook review. Am J Clin Nutr 2013;97:127–34.

Be skeptical

Overall, “the vast majority of these claims were based on weak statistical evidence.” Individual studies reported larger effect sizes than did the meta-analyses, meaning that when the studies on a particular food were grouped together and reviewed as a whole, the was no effect on the rates of cancer. “Our findings support previous evidence” wrote Schoenfeld and Ioannidis “suggesting that effect sizes are likely to trend closer to the null as more data are accumulated.” The more research is done, the less there appears to be any effect at all between these foods and cancer.

I’ve worked in many different fields, and it’s hard to find another field that seems to be performing so poorly. It does draw amazing attention in the news, but nothing seems to be validated. I can’t think of any other field that has that constellation of failure.
— John Ioannidis. How Washington keeps America sick and fat. Politico 11/4/2019

This paper is a good reminder that not everything that is published in a peer-reviewed journal is certain (even if the authors think it is). As a reader it is best to maintain a stance of respectful skepticism. That is especially true about claims that a food causes cancer, whether those claims are made by a researcher or a rabbi.


For a longer analysis of the evolution of the stringency of overnight eggs, see the essay published today on The Lehrhaus here.



NEXT TIME ON TALMUDOLOGY: TALMUDIC PROBABILITY THEORY


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